My Top 15 Prospects

Posted: November 22, 2008 by Andrew in Uncategorized

Few things in life are as fun as talking about the future, and baseball is no different. The debate and discussion started when reviewing, ranking, and projecting minor league prospects can last hours without a true answer. (Be sure to read Sam’s version as well!) The main reason for this frustration is the lack of a sound definition of “prospect.” Just what is a prospect?

The general answer is a combination of a player’s chance of making it to the majors, and how good a player could potentially be. The question is how much value to place on either of these.

So, for the sake of argument, I am going to create a list of ten prospects (but in reality I could do hundreds) and set them against a weighted formula. I value how good a player could potentially be (ceiling) over his chance of actually making it to the majors.

In the formula below, ‘X’ is the same as ceiling, while ‘Y’ is chance of making it to the majors.

X (1.50) + Y (1.00)

Very simple, I know, but at least it gives us something to start with. What the current numbers I have signify is just a flat-out ranking based on chance of making it to the majors with a boost given to those who have a higher ceiling.

Before we can rank the top ten prospects, we have to rank the players who have the highest ceiling and best chance of making it to the majors. These are my rankings, and they are obviously debatable. (I also attached a value to each one.)

 

Highest Ceiling

  1. Aaron Hicks, 110
  2. Deolis Guerra, 105
  3. Angel Morales, 100
  4. Ben Revere, 95
  5. Tyler Robertson, 90
  6. Shooter Hunt, 85
  7. Danny Valencia, 80
  8. Anthony Swazark, 75
  9. Wilson Ramos, 70
  10. Jeff Manship, 65
  11. Mike McCardell, 60 
  12. Carlos Gutierrez, 55
  13. Joe Benson, 50
  14. Tyler Ladendorf, 45
  15. Brian Dinkelman, 40
This is where it gets extremely tough. There are many factors in which to place value in for highest chance of making it to the majors, and some are more important than others. With the help ofSeth Stohs here is a system that can best allow us to rank based on chance to make it to the majors:
 
The most important factor when considering this is where the particular player is in the Twins organization. Obviously a player in Rochester has a better chance than a player with the GCL Twins. Let’s divy out the points this way (50 points for being in AAA, 40 for AA, 30 for FM, 25 for Beloit, 20 for E-Town and 10 for GCL.)
It is also possible that the organization will give those who they draft higher more opportunities to succeed. Here are some more points to be given out (40 for 1st round pick, 20 for 2nd round pick, 15 for 3rd round pick, 10 for 4th-12th, 5 for 13-20th, 0 for anything less.)
Also, signing bonuses could be mixed into this huge mess. I’ll keep this one simple: say, 20 points if the signing bonus was over $1 million.
Because I don’t want to spend my entire life doing this, I used Seth’s top 15 prospects and sorted them based on the above values. While the methods are obviously debatable, my list is like this:
 
Highest Chance of Making it to the Majors
  1. Trevor Plouffe, 110
  2. Carlos Gutierrez, 90
  3. Ben Revere, 85
  4. Aaron Hicks, 70
  5. Anthony Swazark, 70
  6. Kevin Mulvey, 70
  7. Luke Hughes, 50
  8. Danny Valencia, 45
  9. Tyler Robertson, 45
  10. Chris Parmelee, 45
  11. Angel Morales, 35
  12. Jeff Manship, 35
  13. Wilson Ramos, 30
  14. Deolis Guerra, 30
  15. Rene Tosoni, 30
Alright, now we’re getting somewhere. Here are those who are ranked in the first list, but not the second:
  • Shooter Hunt, 80
  • Brian Dinkelman, 50
  • Joe Benson, 45
  • Tyler Ladendorf, 40
  • Mike McCardell, 35
And for those who are on the second list but not first, I’ll assign a Ceiling value of 35.
 
Now we’re almost done. Just plugging these numbers into the formula (X (1.50) + Y (1.00)) here is the final list…

My Top Fifteen Twins Prospects

  1. Aaron Hicks, 235
  2. Ben Revere, 227.5
  3. Shooter Hunt, 207.5
  4. Deolis Guerra, 187.5
  5. Angel Morales, 185
  6. Anthony Swazark, 182.5
  7. Tyler Robertson, 180
  8. Carlos Gutierrez, 172.5
  9. Danny Valencia, 165
  10. Trevor Plouffe, 162.5
  11. Wilson Ramos, 135
  12. Jeff Manship, 132.5
  13. Mike McCardell, 125
  14. Kevin Mulvey, 122.5
  15. Joe Benson, 120
     
Please debate and discuss this below. What did I do wrong, who did I leave out? What would you have done different? What do you value more when ranking prospects; ceiling or highest chance of making it to the majors? Please spill your guts below! (Originally from TwinsFix.com)
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Comments
  1. Sam says:

    good article, liked how you ranked them by according to who has the best chance at making it to the majors

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